🕊️ De-escalation in South Kivu: M23/AFC Offers "Olive Branch" to Burundi Under U.S. Pressure

In a dramatic shift following the capture of Uvira on December 10, 2025, the AFC/M23 alliance has announced a conditional strategic retreat. This move is widely seen as an attempt to salvage the fragile "Washington Accords for Peace and Prosperity" signed just days earlier (December 4) by Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame under the auspices of Donald Trump.

Key Strategic Developments:

• The Uvira Retreat: After a week of occupation that displaced nearly 200,000 civilians, the M23 has agreed to pull back—but only if the city is demilitarized and placed under the supervision of a "Neutral Monitoring Force" (potentially composed of non-aligned African or international observers).

• The Burundi Pivot: In a major diplomatic maneuver, the M23 is seeking to decouple Burundi from its military alliance with Kinshasa. By offering to release hundreds of Burundian POWs and guaranteeing that rebel groups like RED-Tabara will not use M23 territory to attack Bujumbura, the rebels are placing significant pressure on President Évariste Ndayishimiye to withdraw his remaining 15,000 troops.

• Doha vs. Washington: While the Washington Accords focus on the state-to-state relationship between DRC and Rwanda, the Doha Process remains the primary channel for direct negotiations between the Congolese government and the M23. This withdrawal is being framed as a "goodwill gesture" to keep the Doha talks alive.

The humanitarian situation in the Ruzizi Plain remains critical, and the international community is now watching to see if Kinshasa will accept these conditions or launch a counter-offensive to retake the city by force.