🛰️ Regional Oversight: SADC Imposes "Strict Surveillance" on Madagascar’s Transition

Following the military takeover in October 2025, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has officially signaled that it will not look away from the "Big Island." The regional bloc has committed to a rigorous monitoring phase that will last until a constitutional order is restored.

The Path to Legitimacy:

• National Dialogue: SADC leaders have made it clear that "credible elections" cannot happen in a vacuum. They are demanding an inclusive dialogue that includes all political factions, including the youth-led "Generation Z" movements.

• Amnesty and Returns: A key requirement for the regional body is the safe and peaceful return of political exiles, ensuring that the next electoral cycle is truly competitive.

The Context of the Crisis: Madagascar’s current state is the result of a "perfect storm" of social and political collapse:

1. September 2025 Unrest: Critical failures in water and electricity infrastructure (managed by JIRAMA) led to weeks of nationwide protests and "dead city" strikes.

2. The October Coup: In the wake of violent repression and at least 22 deaths, the CAPSAT (an elite army unit) intervened. On October 12, President Andry Rajoelina fled the country, and Colonel Michael Randrianirina was invested as the leader of the "Presidential Council of the Refoundation."

The military council has promised a "short transition," but with the country currently suspended from the African Union, the pressure for a clear democratic roadmap has never been higher.